TY - JOUR
T1 - US–China commercial rivalry, great war and middle powers
AU - Jeong, Bora
AU - Lee, Hoon
N1 - Funding Information:
The authors received no financial support for the research, authorship and/or publication of this article.
Publisher Copyright:
© The Author(s) 2021.
PY - 2021/6
Y1 - 2021/6
N2 - This paper examines whether the recent trade war between the US and China would lead to a great power war. In so doing, we rely on two theoretical frameworks, mercantilism and power transition theory, that are likely to link trade war to a military confrontation. Evidence shows that the trade war per se is not a sufficient condition for an all-out war between the US and China. Unlike mercantilists argue, first, we identify the importance of domestic coalitions before trade war being escalated to a military conflict. Second, we find that trade war as economic statecraft is a viable means to suppress a challenger’s capability, which may stop or delay the power transition process. The findings provide implications for middle power countries where strategic choices are required between the two major powers.
AB - This paper examines whether the recent trade war between the US and China would lead to a great power war. In so doing, we rely on two theoretical frameworks, mercantilism and power transition theory, that are likely to link trade war to a military confrontation. Evidence shows that the trade war per se is not a sufficient condition for an all-out war between the US and China. Unlike mercantilists argue, first, we identify the importance of domestic coalitions before trade war being escalated to a military conflict. Second, we find that trade war as economic statecraft is a viable means to suppress a challenger’s capability, which may stop or delay the power transition process. The findings provide implications for middle power countries where strategic choices are required between the two major powers.
KW - US trade policy
KW - US–China trade war
KW - mercantilism
KW - middle power
KW - power transition theory
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85112387654&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1177/22338659211018322
DO - 10.1177/22338659211018322
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85112387654
VL - 24
SP - 135
EP - 148
JO - International Area Studies Review
JF - International Area Studies Review
SN - 2233-8659
IS - 2
ER -