Uncertainty and export performance: Evidence from 18 countries

Kevin B. Grier, Aaron D. Smallwood

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

59 Scopus citations


We study a sample of nine developed and nine developing countries to evaluate the questions of how foreign income uncertainty and real exchange rate (RER) uncertainty impact international trade and how those impacts vary according to stage of development. RER uncertainty has a negative and significant impact on export growth for six of the nine less developed countries in our sample, while it has an insignificant effect for a majority of the developed countries. In both groups, foreign income uncertainty has a more pervasively significant (and frequently larger) influence on trade than does RER uncertainty.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)965-979
Number of pages15
JournalJournal of Money, Credit and Banking
Issue number4
StatePublished - Jun 2007


  • Asymmetric GARCH
  • Export growth
  • Income uncertainty
  • Real exchange rate uncertainty


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