TY - JOUR
T1 - The role of individual personality type in subjective risk elicitation outcomes
AU - Yang, Zhijun
AU - Coble, K. H.
AU - Hudson, M. Darren
PY - 2009
Y1 - 2009
N2 - Managing uncertainty is an unavoidable challenge in a variety of decision contexts. On many occasions, objective data are not available, necessitating the use of experts. However, research into procedures to elicit and aggregate information from experts is difficult to validate or test empirically. A controlled economic experiment was used to assess subjective probability elicitation accuracy resulting from three alternative elicitation procedures and two aggregation alternatives. The empirical results provide evidence of the impacts of elicitation techniques, distribution type, and personal characteristics such as risk preferences and personality type on subjective risk assessment accuracy. Our conclusion is that experimental approaches hold promise as a technique to assess the forecast accuracy of aggregated subjective probabilities in a variety of contexts.
AB - Managing uncertainty is an unavoidable challenge in a variety of decision contexts. On many occasions, objective data are not available, necessitating the use of experts. However, research into procedures to elicit and aggregate information from experts is difficult to validate or test empirically. A controlled economic experiment was used to assess subjective probability elicitation accuracy resulting from three alternative elicitation procedures and two aggregation alternatives. The empirical results provide evidence of the impacts of elicitation techniques, distribution type, and personal characteristics such as risk preferences and personality type on subjective risk assessment accuracy. Our conclusion is that experimental approaches hold promise as a technique to assess the forecast accuracy of aggregated subjective probabilities in a variety of contexts.
KW - Experimental economics
KW - Personality type
KW - Subjective probability evaluation
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=61349189524&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1080/13669870802488990
DO - 10.1080/13669870802488990
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:61349189524
VL - 12
SP - 209
EP - 222
JO - Journal of Risk Research
JF - Journal of Risk Research
SN - 1366-9877
IS - 2
ER -