The macroeconomic impact of oil earnings uncertainty: New evidence from analyst forecasts

Xiaohan Ma, Roberto Samaniego

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

2 Scopus citations

Abstract

We develop measures of oil earnings uncertainty (OEU) using analyst forecasts drawn from a large firm-level dataset. OEU is related to future economic downturns, so some OEU measures may serve to forecast future downturns. An increase in OEU also has adverse effects on the US oil sector. The results are robust to conditioning on aggregate uncertainty. At the same time, OEU is related to increases in stock prices – unlike aggregate uncertainty, which has the opposite effect. OEU is thus an independent influence on both the oil industry and on economic aggregates.

Original languageEnglish
Article number104832
JournalEnergy Economics
Volume90
DOIs
StatePublished - Aug 2020

Keywords

  • Analyst forecasts
  • Business cycles
  • Oil earnings uncertainty
  • Oil markets

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