Delay in viral production may have a significant impact on the early stages of infection. During the eclipse phase, the time from viral entry until active production of viral particles, no viruses are produced. This delay affects the probability that a viral infection becomes established and timing of the peak viral load. Deterministic and stochastic models are formulated with either multiple latent stages or a fixed delay for the eclipse phase. The deterministic model with multiple latent stages approaches in the limit the model with a fixed delay as the number of stages approaches infinity. The deterministic model framework is used to formulate continuous-time Markov chain and stochastic differential equation models. The probability of a minor infection with rapid viral clearance as opposed to a major full-blown infection with a high viral load is estimated from a branching process approximation of the Markov chain model and the results are confirmed through numerical simulations. In addition, parameter values for influenza A are used to numerically estimate the time to peak viral infection and peak viral load for the deterministic and stochastic models. Although the average length of the eclipse phase is the same in each of the models, as the number of latent stages increases, the numerical results show that the time to viral peak and the peak viral load increase.
- Markov chain
- probability of extinction
- stochastic differential equation
- viral infection