TY - JOUR
T1 - The Cuban revolution and infant mortality
T2 - A synthetic control approach
AU - Geloso, Vincent
AU - Pavlik, Jamie Bologna
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2020
PY - 2021/4
Y1 - 2021/4
N2 - The Cuban government often boasts that the country's infant mortality rate has been low and falling since Fidel Castro's revolution in 1959. However, because many Latin American countries have experienced similar decreases, and because Cuba historically enjoyed lower infant mortality rates than the rest of Latin America, it is unclear whether the government should get credit. We use the fact that Cuba underwent momentous and unique political changes to consider the effect of Castro's regime on infant mortality. We employ a synthetic control method to ascertain how much of the reduction, if any, can be attributed to the regime. We find that in the first decade of the regime, infant mortality increased relative to the counterfactual, but that—after the introduction of Soviet subsidies—infant mortality partially reverted to trend. To measure the effect of the subsidies, we run a second synthetic control test concerning the collapse of the Soviet Union and the accompanying end of the subsidies. This control suggests that the subsidies played no important role.
AB - The Cuban government often boasts that the country's infant mortality rate has been low and falling since Fidel Castro's revolution in 1959. However, because many Latin American countries have experienced similar decreases, and because Cuba historically enjoyed lower infant mortality rates than the rest of Latin America, it is unclear whether the government should get credit. We use the fact that Cuba underwent momentous and unique political changes to consider the effect of Castro's regime on infant mortality. We employ a synthetic control method to ascertain how much of the reduction, if any, can be attributed to the regime. We find that in the first decade of the regime, infant mortality increased relative to the counterfactual, but that—after the introduction of Soviet subsidies—infant mortality partially reverted to trend. To measure the effect of the subsidies, we run a second synthetic control test concerning the collapse of the Soviet Union and the accompanying end of the subsidies. This control suggests that the subsidies played no important role.
KW - Castro regime
KW - Cuba
KW - Health economics
KW - Infant mortality
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85097766478&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.eeh.2020.101376
DO - 10.1016/j.eeh.2020.101376
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85097766478
VL - 80
JO - Explorations in Economic History
JF - Explorations in Economic History
SN - 0014-4983
M1 - 101376
ER -