Abstract
An analytic structural reliability analysis is performed for first contact miscible, two-phase flow in a one-dimensional porous medium. The sensitivity of the probability for time-to-breakthrough is examined for two common models of the joint probability distribution between the porosity and the permeability of the medium. First-order analysis is essentially exact for the normal-normal model. The accuracy of first-order analysis for the normal-lognormal model is determined using a specific example of field data. A cyclical dependence on the breakthrough probability to the statistical nature of the porosity and permeability is found in the normal-normal model. In the normal-lognormal model, this cyclical variation is reduced, if not entirely eliminated, in favor of dependence on the statistical nature of the permeability.
Original language | English |
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Pages (from-to) | 935-953 |
Number of pages | 19 |
Journal | SIAM Journal on Applied Mathematics |
Volume | 54 |
Issue number | 4 |
DOIs | |
State | Published - 1994 |