TY - JOUR
T1 - Stochastic modeling of phosphorus transport in the Three Gorges Reservoir by incorporating variability associated with the phosphorus partition coefficient
AU - Huang, Lei
AU - Fang, Hongwei
AU - Xu, Xingya
AU - He, Guojian
AU - Zhang, Xuesong
AU - Reible, Danny
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2017 Elsevier B.V.
PY - 2017/8/15
Y1 - 2017/8/15
N2 - Phosphorus (P) fate and transport plays a crucial role in the ecology of rivers and reservoirs in which eutrophication is limited by P. A key uncertainty in models used to help manage P in such systems is the partitioning of P to suspended and bed sediments. By analyzing data from field and laboratory experiments, we stochastically characterize the variability of the partition coefficient (Kd) and derive spatio-temporal solutions for P transport in the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR). We formulate a set of stochastic partial different equations (SPDEs) to simulate P transport by randomly sampling Kd from the measured distributions, to obtain statistical descriptions of the P concentration and retention in the TGR. The correspondence between predicted and observed P concentrations and P retention in the TGR combined with the ability to effectively characterize uncertainty suggests that a model that incorporates the observed variability can better describe P dynamics and more effectively serve as a tool for P management in the system. This study highlights the importance of considering parametric uncertainty in estimating uncertainty/variability associated with simulated P transport.
AB - Phosphorus (P) fate and transport plays a crucial role in the ecology of rivers and reservoirs in which eutrophication is limited by P. A key uncertainty in models used to help manage P in such systems is the partitioning of P to suspended and bed sediments. By analyzing data from field and laboratory experiments, we stochastically characterize the variability of the partition coefficient (Kd) and derive spatio-temporal solutions for P transport in the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR). We formulate a set of stochastic partial different equations (SPDEs) to simulate P transport by randomly sampling Kd from the measured distributions, to obtain statistical descriptions of the P concentration and retention in the TGR. The correspondence between predicted and observed P concentrations and P retention in the TGR combined with the ability to effectively characterize uncertainty suggests that a model that incorporates the observed variability can better describe P dynamics and more effectively serve as a tool for P management in the system. This study highlights the importance of considering parametric uncertainty in estimating uncertainty/variability associated with simulated P transport.
KW - Partition coefficient
KW - Phosphorus transport
KW - Stochastic model
KW - Three Gorges Reservoir
KW - Uncertainty
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85015290352&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.02.227
DO - 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.02.227
M3 - Article
C2 - 28318698
AN - SCOPUS:85015290352
SN - 0048-9697
VL - 592
SP - 649
EP - 661
JO - Science of the Total Environment
JF - Science of the Total Environment
ER -