Solar Particle Event Dose Forecasting Using Regression Techniques

Alan Lovelace, Al Rashid, Wouter C. de Wet, Lawrence W Townsend, J Wesley Hines, Hanna Moussa

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Doses from solar particle events can be a serious threat to the wellbeing of crews traveling through space. Therefore, methods for predicting the time such events will take place, methods for forecasting the dose buildup over time, and methods for forecasting the potential total dose from such events are needed to enable crews to take actions to mitigate the effects by entering a shielded area designed for their protection. This work focuses on forecasting the total dose expected for an event, based upon doses obtained very early in the event, using the kernel regression method. The model uses tables of calculated doses for historical solar particle events augmented with hypothetical events similar to the actual ones for training purposes. Reasonably accurate predictions of the total dose expected for an event can be made within the first hour after event onset. Predictive accuracies generally increase as the event progresses in time. The only inputs required are doses and times since
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1073 - 1085
JournalSpace Weather Journal
DOIs
StatePublished - Aug 18 2018

Cite this