Simulation of organic carbon dynamics at regional scale for paddy soils in China

Accurate simulation of soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics is vitally important in researching the carbon cycle in terrestrial ecosystems. Especially, the application of SOC model at the regional scale has major implications for regional and global carbon cycling. This paper addresses the regional simulation for SOC in the surface layer (0~15 cm) of paddy soils in Wuxi and Changzhou, Jiangsu Province, China from 1982~2000 by linking a model of agro-ecosystem SOC dynamic simulation with GIS data on the basis of 100 × 100 m grids. The dataset includes soil profile descriptions and chemical data of 187 paddy soil samples in the Second National Soil Survey of China in 1982 and 352 paddy soil samples taken in 2000. Soil maps at a scale of 1:50,000 were used for the simulation. Results showed that the area of differences between simulated and observed SOC in 2000 (in the range of -3.6 to 3.6 Mg C ha^-1) accounted for 50.6% of the total area. Also, when a 10% and 20% simulated increase, and a 10%, 20% and 30% simulated decrease in harvested crop straw and manure amendments were simulated to test the sensitivity of the model, simulated SOC would range from 10.26 to 50.40 Mg C ha^-1 with a standard deviation of 1.6 and 2.5, respectively. It is indicated that a key factor controlling SOC is the amount of residue and manure inputs. As for the assessment model suitability based on soil textures, soil types, and parent materials, the model seemed to perform better for clayey soils, groundwater-related paddy soils and soils derived from alluvial parent material than for loamy soils, surface water-related paddy soils and soil derived from loess material.