Risk and the programmatic cost-time s-curve

The relationship between risk and project expenditures over time is revealed through the accepted programmatic S-Curve, which monotonically depicts the highest rate of spending in the middle of the project and the lowest at the beginning and tail end. As a new project proceeds from inception to completion, the risk of programmatic failure decreases as work is performed, measured in monetary terms over time. The shape of the S-Curve has been described qualitatively and quantitively; however, this research provides a philosophical, behavioral, and analytical foundation which can then ultimately be applied to the quantization of programmatic risk. Although usually conflated, the differences inherent to subjective and objective probabilities will form the basis of a model developed from an understanding of uncertainty (entropy). This analysis will provide engineers and scientists with the critical issues and trade-offs inherent to the management of the economies of programmatic costs.