Risk and the programmatic cost-time s-curve

Thomas J. Monroe, Mario G. Beruvides

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

1 Scopus citations

Abstract

The relationship between risk and project expenditures over time is revealed through the accepted programmatic S-Curve, which monotonically depicts the highest rate of spending in the middle of the project and the lowest at the beginning and tail end. As a new project proceeds from inception to completion, the risk of programmatic failure decreases as work is performed, measured in monetary terms over time. The shape of the S-Curve has been described qualitatively and quantitively; however, this research provides a philosophical, behavioral, and analytical foundation which can then ultimately be applied to the quantization of programmatic risk. Although usually conflated, the differences inherent to subjective and objective probabilities will form the basis of a model developed from an understanding of uncertainty (entropy). This analysis will provide engineers and scientists with the critical issues and trade-offs inherent to the management of the economies of programmatic costs.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication2019 International Annual Conference Proceedings of the American Society for Engineering Management and 40th Meeting Celebration
Subtitle of host publicationA Systems Approach to Engineering Management Solutions, ASEM 2019
EditorsE. Schott, H. Keathley, C. Krejci
PublisherAmerican Society for Engineering Management
ISBN (Electronic)9780997519563
StatePublished - 2019
Event2019 International Annual Conference of the American Society for Engineering Management and 40th Meeting Celebration: A Systems Approach to Engineering Management Solutions, ASEM 2019 - Philadelphia, United States
Duration: Oct 23 2019Oct 26 2019

Publication series

Name2019 International Annual Conference Proceedings of the American Society for Engineering Management and 40th Meeting Celebration: A Systems Approach to Engineering Management Solutions, ASEM 2019

Conference

Conference2019 International Annual Conference of the American Society for Engineering Management and 40th Meeting Celebration: A Systems Approach to Engineering Management Solutions, ASEM 2019
Country/TerritoryUnited States
CityPhiladelphia
Period10/23/1910/26/19

Keywords

  • Cumulative risk
  • Information theory
  • Objective probability
  • Risk
  • Risk quantization
  • Subjective probability
  • Subjective time

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