Resilience mapping of strategic water plans: A preliminary systems dynamics model

In an attempt to make their systems more resilient to a plurality of pressures, it is not uncommon for municipalities to formulate strategic water plans (SWPs). Such plans are intended to mitigate uncertainty as well as ensure the long-term welfare and prosperity of the communities they serve. Current evidence suggests that these SWPs will become critically important to a community's continuity as water becomes increasingly scarce in both developed and developing countries. Resilience, however, is a complex target. Despite its ubiquity across multiple domains for the past several decades, questions regarding what is being preserved, for who/what, and for how long remain. The answers to such questions have important implications for water resource managers. In Part 1 of this paper, the authors examine the SWP for a medium sized community in a semi-arid region of the United States and analyze it through the lens of resilience. Specifically, the authors match the interventions proposed in the SWP to commonly prescribed resilience strategies. In Part 2, the authors propose a causal loop diagram that will serve as the foundation of a systems dynamics model intended to measure the efficacy of the resilience interventions canvassed in Part 1. The authors conclude Part 2 by identifying some assumptions and tensions discovered thus far. Addressing these in-depth constitute the next steps in the research project outlined here. The authors argue that the thoughtful application of systems thinking and tools can help ensure the ongoing availability of this critical common resource.