Reserves estimation in unconventional reservoirs using production-decline model

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

Erroneous reserve estimates associated with improper application of Arp's relations has led to the development of alternative rate-time models based on empirical considerations. These models can equally provide good fits for only limited duration production data, but they yield significantly different 30-year- estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) estimates. In our previous work, we extensively demonstrated the reliability of cumulative-production model to analyze the production performance of fractured dominated tight and shale reservoirs. A number of field and simulation examples are used to generate 30-year-EUR estimates using different rate-time models as well as production-Decline model. As to quantify the uncertainty associated with the aggregating 30-year EUR forecasts, we use the approach of Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology. The results show that some of rate-time models overestimate EUR with more than 150% compared with cumulative production-Decline model which yields exact estimates in most of the cases. The results also show that the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation provides a robust methodology for quantifying the uncertainty of the EUR estimates.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationSociety of Petroleum Engineers - SPE/AAPG/SEG Unconventional Resources Technology Conference
PublisherSociety of Petroleum Engineers
ISBN (Electronic)9781613993606
DOIs
StatePublished - 2016
EventSPE/AAPG/SEG Unconventional Resources Technology Conference - Denver, United States
Duration: Aug 25 2014Aug 27 2014

Publication series

NameSociety of Petroleum Engineers - SPE/AAPG/SEG Unconventional Resources Technology Conference

Conference

ConferenceSPE/AAPG/SEG Unconventional Resources Technology Conference
CountryUnited States
CityDenver
Period08/25/1408/27/14

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  • Cite this

    Ali, T., Sheng, J., & Watson, M. (2016). Reserves estimation in unconventional reservoirs using production-decline model. In Society of Petroleum Engineers - SPE/AAPG/SEG Unconventional Resources Technology Conference (Society of Petroleum Engineers - SPE/AAPG/SEG Unconventional Resources Technology Conference). Society of Petroleum Engineers. https://doi.org/10.15530/urtec-2014-1922914