Propane demand modeling for residential sectors: A regression analysis

Nitin Shenoy, Milton Smith

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter

Abstract

The challenges that propane companies face in maintaining a balance in inventories during the summer and winter months, and the factors that influence the residential propane demand were addressed. This chapter presents a forecasting model for propane consumption within the residential sector. Forecasting the propane demand helps to determine whether there will be a shortage of propane in the storage or distribution center, and is there a need for new distribution station or a storage facility, or vice-versa that there is an overabundance of propane, that is, far more than the demand and if there is a need to shut down few facilities. The dynamic behavior of different variables that affected the propane consumption was studied and using Base SAS we developed a forecasting model. The results indicated that the forecasting model provides a potentially useful forecast for residential propane consumption. This research has been limited to forecasting for normal periods, that is periods without irregularities in demand caused by holidays or festivals. The forecasts developed were useful in improving the inventory balance for a local propane company during different months.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationAdvances in Business and Management Forecasting
EditorsKenneth Lawrence, Ronald Klimberg
Pages31-40
Number of pages10
DOIs
StatePublished - 2011

Publication series

NameAdvances in Business and Management Forecasting
Volume8
ISSN (Print)1477-4070

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  • Cite this

    Shenoy, N., & Smith, M. (2011). Propane demand modeling for residential sectors: A regression analysis. In K. Lawrence, & R. Klimberg (Eds.), Advances in Business and Management Forecasting (pp. 31-40). (Advances in Business and Management Forecasting; Vol. 8). https://doi.org/10.1108/S1477-4070(2011)0000008006