Projected change in climate thresholds in the Northeastern U.S.: implications for crops, pests, livestock, and farmers

David W Wolfe; Lewis Ziska; Curt Petzoldt; Abby Seaman; Larry Chase; Katharine Hayhoe

Projected change in climate thresholds in the Northeastern U.S.: implications for crops, pests, livestock, and farmers

David W Wolfe, Lewis Ziska, Curt Petzoldt, Abby Seaman, Larry Chase, Katharine Hayhoe

Political Science

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Abstract

Most prior climate change assessments for U.S. agriculture have focused on major world food crops such as wheat and maize. While useful from a national and global perspective, these results are not particularly relevant to the Northeastern U.S. agriculture economy, which is dominated by dairy milk production, and high-value horticultural crops such as apples (Malus domestica), grapes (Vitis vinifera), sweet corn (Zea mays var. rugosa), cabbage (Brassica oleracea var. capitata), and maple syrup (sugar maple, Acer saccharum). We used statistically downscaled climate projections generated by the HadCM3 atmosphere–ocean general circulation model, run with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change future emissions scenarios A1fi (higher) and B1 (lower), to evaluate several climate thresholds of direct relevance to agriculture in the region. A longer (frost-free) growing season could create new opportunities for farmers with enough capital to take risks on new crops (assuming a market for n

Original language	English
Journal	Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change
State	Published - Sep 12 2007

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title = "Projected change in climate thresholds in the Northeastern U.S.: implications for crops, pests, livestock, and farmers",

abstract = "Most prior climate change assessments for U.S. agriculture have focused on major world food crops such as wheat and maize. While useful from a national and global perspective, these results are not particularly relevant to the Northeastern U.S. agriculture economy, which is dominated by dairy milk production, and high-value horticultural crops such as apples (Malus domestica), grapes (Vitis vinifera), sweet corn (Zea mays var. rugosa), cabbage (Brassica oleracea var. capitata), and maple syrup (sugar maple, Acer saccharum). We used statistically downscaled climate projections generated by the HadCM3 atmosphere–ocean general circulation model, run with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change future emissions scenarios A1fi (higher) and B1 (lower), to evaluate several climate thresholds of direct relevance to agriculture in the region. A longer (frost-free) growing season could create new opportunities for farmers with enough capital to take risks on new crops (assuming a market for n",

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AU - Wolfe, David W

AU - Ziska, Lewis

AU - Petzoldt, Curt

AU - Seaman, Abby

AU - Chase, Larry

AU - Hayhoe, Katharine

PY - 2007/9/12

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M3 - Article

JO - Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change

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