Production decline models: A comparison study

Tariq A. Ali, James J. Sheng

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

14 Scopus citations


Erroneous reserve estimates associated with improper application of Arp's relations has led to the development of alternative rate-time models based on empirical considerations. These models can equally provide good fits for only limited duration production data, but they yield significantly different 30-year-estimated ultimate recovery (EUR). In our previous work, we extensively demonstrated the reliability of cumulative-production model to analyze the production performance of fractured dominated tight and shale reservoirs. In this paper, a number of real field examples are used to generate 30-year-EUR estimates using different rate-time models as well as a production-decline model. Results show that some of rate-time models overestimate EUR with more than 150% compared with the cumulative production-decline model which yields correct estimates in most of the cases.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationSociety of Petroleum Engineers - SPE Eastern Regional Meeting 2015, ERM 2015
PublisherSociety of Petroleum Engineers (SPE)
ISBN (Electronic)9781613994252
StatePublished - 2015
Event2015 SPE Eastern Regional Meeting, ERM 2015 - Morgantown, United States
Duration: Oct 13 2015Oct 15 2015

Publication series

NameSPE Eastern Regional Meeting


Conference2015 SPE Eastern Regional Meeting, ERM 2015
Country/TerritoryUnited States


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