Probability of a major infection in a stochastic within-host model with multiple stages

Fan Bai, Linda J.S. Allen

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

2 Scopus citations

Abstract

Establishment or spread of a viral infection within healthy individuals depends on exposure to a viral source, either through virus particles or through cells that have been infected. We assume that a potential infection has reached the site of the healthy target cells and we apply stochastic within-host models and multitype branching processes to investigate whether a major infection becomes established. The model includes multiple latent and actively infected stages. It is shown that the probability of a major infection is generally more likely after the virus has entered the target cell and the cell is actively infected. In some cases, the probability of a major infection is less likely if the burst size of actively infected cells is small.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1-6
Number of pages6
JournalApplied Mathematics Letters
Volume87
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 2019

Keywords

  • Branching process
  • Markov chain
  • Viral infection
  • Within-host models

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