TY - JOUR
T1 - Probabilistic Projections of Hydrological Droughts Through Convection-Permitting Climate Simulations and Multimodel Hydrological Predictions
AU - Chen, H.
AU - Wang, S.
AU - Wang, Y.
AU - Zhu, J.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
Copyright:
Copyright 2020 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.
PY - 2020/8/16
Y1 - 2020/8/16
N2 - The reliable projection of future changes in hydrological drought characteristics plays a crucial role in providing meaningful insights into agricultural development and water resources planning under climate change. In this study, we develop probabilistic projections of hydrological drought characteristics through a convection-permitting climate simulation and a multimodel hydrological prediction for two major river basins in South Texas of the United States. The probabilistic hydrological drought projection depicts the future evolution of spatiotemporal characteristics of droughts under best- and worst-case scenarios. Our findings reveal that there is a considerable variation in hydrological drought regimes near the urban area in South Texas. And the prolonged severe drought events are expected to be punctuated by the increasing extreme precipitation in a changing climate. This could lead to an increasing number of the dry-wet abrupt alternation events. Moreover, hydrological droughts are projected to occur more frequently for the fall season in the Guadalupe River Basin and for the winter season in the Blanco River Basin, advancing our understanding of future changes in seasonal characteristics of hydrological droughts at a river basin scale.
AB - The reliable projection of future changes in hydrological drought characteristics plays a crucial role in providing meaningful insights into agricultural development and water resources planning under climate change. In this study, we develop probabilistic projections of hydrological drought characteristics through a convection-permitting climate simulation and a multimodel hydrological prediction for two major river basins in South Texas of the United States. The probabilistic hydrological drought projection depicts the future evolution of spatiotemporal characteristics of droughts under best- and worst-case scenarios. Our findings reveal that there is a considerable variation in hydrological drought regimes near the urban area in South Texas. And the prolonged severe drought events are expected to be punctuated by the increasing extreme precipitation in a changing climate. This could lead to an increasing number of the dry-wet abrupt alternation events. Moreover, hydrological droughts are projected to occur more frequently for the fall season in the Guadalupe River Basin and for the winter season in the Blanco River Basin, advancing our understanding of future changes in seasonal characteristics of hydrological droughts at a river basin scale.
KW - convection permitting
KW - drought
KW - regional climate projection
KW - streamflow prediction
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85089377306&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1029/2020JD032914
DO - 10.1029/2020JD032914
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85089377306
VL - 125
JO - Journal of Geophysical Research
JF - Journal of Geophysical Research
SN - 0148-0227
IS - 15
M1 - e2020JD032914
ER -