Predicting the effect of climate change on wildfire behavior and initial attack success

Jeremy S Fried, J Keith Gilless, William J Riley, Tadashi J Moody, Clara Simon de Blas, Katharine Hayhoe, Max Moritz, Scott Stephens, Margaret Torn

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle


To assess the influence of global climate change at the regional scale, we examine past and future changes in key climate, hydrological, and biophysical indicators across the US Northeast (NE). We first consider the extent to which simulations of twentieth century climate from nine atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) are able to reproduce observed changes in these indicators. We then evaluate projected future trends in primary climate characteristics and indicators of change, including seasonal temperatures, rainfall and drought, snow cover, soil moisture, streamflow, and changes in biometeorological indicators that depend on threshold or accumulated temperatures such as growing season, frost days, and Spring Indices (SI). Changes in indicators for which temperature-related signals have already been observed (seasonal warming patterns, advances in high-spring streamflow, decreases in snow depth, extended growing seasons, earlier bloom dates) are generally reproduced b
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)381-407
JournalClimate Dynamics
StatePublished - Nov 16 2006


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