Potential climate change impacts on Atlantic cod ( Gadus morhua ) off the northeastern USA

Michael Fogarty, Lewis Incze, Katharine Hayhoe, David Mountain, James Manning

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

We examined the potential impacts of future climate change on the distribution and production of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) on the northeastern USA’s continental shelf. We began by examining the response of cod to bottom water temperature changes observed over the past four decades using fishery-independent resource survey data. After accounting for the overall decline in cod during this period, we show that the probability of catching cod at specified locations decreased markedly with increasing bottom temperature. Our analysis of future changes in water temperature was based on output from three coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models under high and low CO2 emissions. An increase of <1.5°C is predicted for all sectors under the low emission scenario in spring and autumn by the end of this century. Under the high emission scenario, temperature increases range from ∼2°C in the north to >3.5°C in the Mid-Atlantic Bight. Under these conditions, cod appear vulnerable to a lo
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)453-466
JournalPotential climate change impacts on Atlantic cod ( Gadus morhua ) off the northeastern USA
StatePublished - Nov 1 2007

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