Quantifiable life-cycle models of the service life of pavement markings are essential for a cost-efficient pavement marking management system. A study was conducted to develop an analysis procedure for typical pavement marking retroreflectivity inspection data. Retroreflectivity data collected by the National Transportation Product Evaluation Program on water-based paints in 2002 on a Pennsylvania test deck were used. Those data were considered interval-level duration data, and a Weibull analysis was performed. A Weibull analysis is a typical method in reliability engineering in which Weibull scale and shape parameters are estimated from failure data for making objective maintenance decisions. Results of the Weibull analysis indicated that the water-based paints had shape and scale parameters of 1.42 (±0.05), and 601.67 (±17.73) days, respectively, for skip line areas and 2.38 (±0.08) and 227.41 (±4.48) days, respectively, for left wheelpath areas. It was also determined that the probability of 2-year water-based paints lasting above 100 mcd/m2/lx varied from 0% to 27%. The lower limit corresponds to the left wheelpath, and the upper limit corresponds to the skip line area. The left wheelpath markings failed to stay above 100 mcd/m2/lx after approximately a year, while skip line markings could maintain 100 mcd/m2/lx ratings or higher for more than 1,000 days. White markings were found to last longer than yellow markings for the same exposure. This study used data from a single site in Pennsylvania. A multisite analysis accounting for time and space variations is recommended before adopting this method for minimum pavement marking retroreflectivity standard assessment.