Organic certification, export market access and the impacts of policy: Bayesian estimation of avocado smallholder "times-to-organic certification" in Michoacán Mexico

Caroline E. Hattam, Donald J. Lacombe, Garth J. Holloway

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

18 Scopus citations

Abstract

This study analyzes organic adoption decisions using a rich set of time-to-organic durations collected from avocado small-holders in Michoacán Mexico. We derive robust, intrasample predictions about the profiles of entry and exit within the conventional-versus-organic complex and we explore the sensitivity of these predictions to choice of functional form. The dynamic nature of the sample allows us to make retrospective predictions and we establish, precisely, the profile of organic entry had the respondents been availed optimal amounts of adoption-restraining resources. A fundamental problem in the dynamic adoption literature, hitherto unrecognized, is discussed and consequent extensions are suggested.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)441-457
Number of pages17
JournalAgricultural Economics (United Kingdom)
Volume43
Issue number4
DOIs
StatePublished - Jul 2012

Keywords

  • Adoption
  • Avocados
  • Duration
  • Michoacán Mexico
  • Model selection
  • Robust posterior prediction
  • Specification search
  • Time to organic certification

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