Integrated systems engineering and economic analysis models for high reliability operations

Commonly used risk models tend to be static and do not incorporate the feedback of an operating environment. Engineers/Stakeholders are left in the position of being caught between the ideal of reducing risk to the lowest possible level and the reality of having to pay for the barriers and controls that reduce risks. High hazard industries such as high explosives manufacturing operations need a methodology for integrating feedback, economics and risk. The systems analysis being proposed uses causal loops to represent feedback, 20-year life cycle analysis to estimate economic costs and an existing hazard analysis with published risk factors. The model implies that a strong response to weak signals is cost effective and valuable for preventing catastrophic events. The resulting methodology successfully demonstrates that risk and cost models can be linked using systems tools to yield improved decision making.