In or out? Explaining state shares of the tobacco master settlement agreement

In 1998, 46 states were involved in a Master Settlement Agreement (MSA) with the tobacco industry. The other four states settled on their own. Our goal is to answer a counter factual question: how would these four states have fared had they been included in the MSA? We use data from Viscusi (2002) to explain settlement shares for states participating in the 1998 tobacco MSA, and to predict settlement shares for the four nonparticipating states. We find that two nonparticipating states (Minnesota and Mississippi) may have fared substantially worse had they been included in the MSA.