Improved methods for task estimation and project tracking

Among the most arduous aspects of project management are those of task estimation, coupled with task execution and tracking. In this paper, new methods for task estimation and tracking are discussed. Change management, of course, is driven by the accuracy of project tracking. The topics of task estimation and Earned Value Analysis (EVA) are investigated for tighter integration and validity. EVA is well accepted as a technique for tracking of projects during execution. Even so, some shortcomings are found and improvements are proposed. A Project Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)-based probabilistic approach to estimation and tracking is presented in this paper that will provide probabilities of on-time as well as within-budget completion, taking into consideration the critical path. The implications for change management are discussed.