TY - JOUR
T1 - Impacts of future climate change on flexible road pavement economics
T2 - A life cycle costs analysis of 24 case studies across the United States
AU - Qiao, Yaning
AU - Guo, Yaru
AU - Stoner, Anne M.K.
AU - Santos, João
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 The Author(s)
PY - 2022/5
Y1 - 2022/5
N2 - Highway agencies are facing pressure for repairing and replacing underfunded and aged road pavement networks that were initially designed for historical climatic conditions. Road pavements must be updated while accounting for the impacts of climate change, which are likely to be exacerbated in the years to come, and with limited budgets. Methodologies and frameworks that help agencies incorporate the long-term effects of climate change on pavement performance and make informed decisions on how to spend their limited funds are therefore of utmost importance. This paper presents a methodological framework that combines downscaled climate projections, pavement performance predictions using the AASHTOWare Pavement ME DesignTM tool, maintenance and rehabilitation strategies, and life cycle costs analysis (LCCA) in a comprehensive system. The proposed methodological framework was adopted in the LCCA of 24 case studies across the contiguous United States under four alternative periods corresponding to simulated climate projections for four 20-year periods (1981-2000, 2001-2020, 2041-2060, and 2081-2100) with a higher Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5). The case study results show that climate change per degree Celsius will lead to approximately $650-700 million/year additional agency costs in the U.S. In addition, climate change will have greater impacts on the costs incurred during the maintenance and end-of-life phases.
AB - Highway agencies are facing pressure for repairing and replacing underfunded and aged road pavement networks that were initially designed for historical climatic conditions. Road pavements must be updated while accounting for the impacts of climate change, which are likely to be exacerbated in the years to come, and with limited budgets. Methodologies and frameworks that help agencies incorporate the long-term effects of climate change on pavement performance and make informed decisions on how to spend their limited funds are therefore of utmost importance. This paper presents a methodological framework that combines downscaled climate projections, pavement performance predictions using the AASHTOWare Pavement ME DesignTM tool, maintenance and rehabilitation strategies, and life cycle costs analysis (LCCA) in a comprehensive system. The proposed methodological framework was adopted in the LCCA of 24 case studies across the contiguous United States under four alternative periods corresponding to simulated climate projections for four 20-year periods (1981-2000, 2001-2020, 2041-2060, and 2081-2100) with a higher Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5). The case study results show that climate change per degree Celsius will lead to approximately $650-700 million/year additional agency costs in the U.S. In addition, climate change will have greater impacts on the costs incurred during the maintenance and end-of-life phases.
KW - Climate change
KW - life cycle costs
KW - life cycle pavement performance
KW - pavement
KW - transportation infrastructure
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85125249392&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.scs.2022.103773
DO - 10.1016/j.scs.2022.103773
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85125249392
SN - 2210-6707
VL - 80
JO - Sustainable Cities and Society
JF - Sustainable Cities and Society
M1 - 103773
ER -