@article{2311b7dde0e046f5bbe38ed91a3551a2,
title = "Illustrative analysis of probabilistic sea level rise hazard",
abstract = "Sea level rise results from several contributing physical processes, including ocean thermal expansion and glacier and ice sheet mass loss. Future projections of sea level remain highly uncertain due to several sources of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. Quantifying different sources of sea level rise involves considering possible pathways of future radiative forcing and integrating models of different sea level rise processes. The probabilistic hazard analysis strategy has been proposed for combining sea level rise prediction models and climate forcing scenarios to examine sea level rise prediction uncertainty and the sources of this uncertainty. In this study we carry out an illustrative probabilistic sea level rise hazard analysis using ensembles of sea level rise predictions and emissions scenarios from the literature. This illustrative analysis allows us to estimate the probability that sea level rise will exceed a specified threshold at a given location and time and highlights how sea level rise uncertainty is sensitive to scenario inputs and sea level rise projection modeling choices. Probabilistic hazard is depicted for Earth using sea level rise hazard maps. We also demonstrate how hazard deaggregation can help us quantify the relative contributions of sea level rise sources, prediction models, and climate forcing scenarios to sea level rise hazard. The ice sheet contribution to sea level rise has a large impact on probabilistic projection of sea level rise due to the disagreements between current ice sheet models related to differences in modeling ice sheet instability.",
author = "Thomas, {Matthew A.} and Ting, {L. I.N.}",
note = "Funding Information: Acknowledgments. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme{\textquoteright}s Working Group on Coupled Modeling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the institutes for the climate models for producing and making available their model output. The U.S. Department of Energy{\textquoteright}s Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals for CMIP5. We acknowledge the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report, which included an emulation strategy for estimating glacier contributions to sea level rise for four glacier models. We acknowledge the Jet Propulsion Laboratory{\textquoteright}s GRACE measurement of monthly mass grids available at http://grace.jpl.nasa.gov, supported by the NASA MEaSUREs Program. We acknowledge the community organized SeaRISE project, which makes available data about ice sheet basin atmospheric and ocean response parameters. We acknowledge the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) for combining and making available TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, Jason-2/OSTM, and Jason-3 satellite altimetry measurements of sea level, available at https://www.cmar. csiro.au/sealevel/sl_data_cmar.html. This work was supported in part by the Committee on Research at Marquette University, under the Regular Research Grant and the Summer Faculty Fellowship awarded to the Principal Investigator T.L., the second author. The Regular Research Grant provides research assistantship support for the first author M.A.T., along with the Research Leaders Fellowship from the Opus College of Engineering. In addition, the capital and operating support from the Office of the Provost to T.L.{\textquoteright}s Multi-Hazard Sustainability (HazSus) Research Group is gratefully acknowledged. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2020 American Meteorological Society.",
year = "2020",
month = feb,
day = "15",
doi = "10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0320.1",
language = "English",
volume = "33",
pages = "1523--1534",
journal = "Journal of Climate",
issn = "0894-8755",
number = "4",
}