Google Trends Analysis of COVID-19 Pandemic

Zhenhe Pan, Hoang Long Nguyen, Hashim Abu-Gellban, Yuanlin Zhang

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

Abstract

The World Health Organization (WHO) announced that COVID-19 was a pandemic disease on the 11th of March as there were 118K cases in several countries and territories. Numerous researchers worked on forecasting the number of confirmed cases since anticipating the growth of the cases helps governments adopting knotty decisions to ease the lockdowns orders for their countries. These orders help several people who have lost their jobs and support gravely impacted businesses. Our research aims to investigate the relation between Google search trends and the spreading of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) over countries worldwide, to predict the number of cases. We perform a correlation analysis on the keywords of the related Google search trends according to the number of confirmed cases reported by the WHO. After that, we applied several machine learning techniques (Multiple Linear Regression, Nonnegative Integer Regression, Deep Neural Network), to forecast the number of confirmed cases globally based on historical data as well as the hybrid data (Google search trends). Our results show that Google search trends are highly associated with the number of reported confirmed cases, where the Deep Learning approach outperforms other forecasting techniques. We believe that it is not only a promising approach for forecasting the confirmed cases of COVID-19, but also for similar forecasting problems that are associated with the related Google trends.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings - 2020 IEEE International Conference on Big Data, Big Data 2020
EditorsXintao Wu, Chris Jermaine, Li Xiong, Xiaohua Tony Hu, Olivera Kotevska, Siyuan Lu, Weijia Xu, Srinivas Aluru, Chengxiang Zhai, Eyhab Al-Masri, Zhiyuan Chen, Jeff Saltz
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
Pages3438-3446
Number of pages9
ISBN (Electronic)9781728162515
DOIs
StatePublished - Dec 10 2020
Event8th IEEE International Conference on Big Data, Big Data 2020 - Virtual, Atlanta, United States
Duration: Dec 10 2020Dec 13 2020

Publication series

NameProceedings - 2020 IEEE International Conference on Big Data, Big Data 2020

Conference

Conference8th IEEE International Conference on Big Data, Big Data 2020
Country/TerritoryUnited States
CityVirtual, Atlanta
Period12/10/2012/13/20

Keywords

  • coronavirus
  • covid'19
  • forecasting
  • machine learning
  • neural networks
  • search trends
  • spatio-temporal analysis

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