Forecasting technology obsolescence: Assessing the existing literature, a systematic review

Albert J. Parvin, Mario G. Beruvides

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is: To provide a systematic review of the existing literature on the topic area of forecasting technology obsolescence and to provide guidelines and recommendations for future research. All business and government organizations that can be affected by technological change inevitably engage in forecasting for the primary reason of making informed decisions. Technology forecasting is the systematic attempt to anticipate and understand the potential direction, rate, characteristics, and effects of technological change, based on assumptions about the external world. Forecasting gives probabilistic information on what is believed will happen based on current assumptions, providing decision makers with insights on what the future might look like to make informed decisions. An organization's withdrawal from a technology segment area is often difficult (typically due to sunk cost bias and general lack of information) and often occurs too late; resulting in financial losses and missed opportunities. The ability to predict when a technology sector has reached maturity has high financial implication (e.g. when to exit from a technology sector and when resources should be transitioned from one technology sector to another.) A systematic review of technology forecasting and applicability to predict the maturity and obsolescence of a technology segment in its life cycle is explored. Guidelines for future research into forecasting the maturity and obsolescence of a technology sector in its life cycle are presented.

Original languageEnglish
StatePublished - 2017
Event2017 International Annual Conference of the American Society for Engineering Management, ASEM 2017 - Huntsville, United States
Duration: Oct 18 2017Oct 21 2017

Conference

Conference2017 International Annual Conference of the American Society for Engineering Management, ASEM 2017
CountryUnited States
CityHuntsville
Period10/18/1710/21/17

Keywords

  • Systematic Literature Review
  • Technology Forecasting Obsolescence

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    Parvin, A. J., & Beruvides, M. G. (2017). Forecasting technology obsolescence: Assessing the existing literature, a systematic review. Paper presented at 2017 International Annual Conference of the American Society for Engineering Management, ASEM 2017, Huntsville, United States.