TY - JOUR
T1 - Forecasting Local Sales Tax Revenues in the Aftermath of a Hurricane
T2 - Application of the Hurricane Resiliency Index
AU - Cui, Yuepeng
AU - Liang, Daan
AU - Ewing, Bradley
N1 - Funding Information:
This material is partially based upon work in part supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant Nos. CMMI-1000251 and CMMI-1131392. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2018 American Society of Civil Engineers.
PY - 2019/2/1
Y1 - 2019/2/1
N2 - This paper focuses on exploring the capability of the recently developed Hurricane Resiliency Index (HRI) to predict future changes in sales tax revenues at the local level. Monthly data for Houston metropolitan statistical area (MSA) is used to forecast sales tax revenue in retail, utility, and construction industry sectors. With variants of the vector autoregressive (VAR) model, we compare the predictive power of using the HRI to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas's Metro Business Cycle Index. The VAR model augmented with the HRI generally provides better forecasts than the model with the Metro Business Cycle Index. The findings indicate that the HRI is a useful and reliable revenue-forecasting tool for local governments and policymakers in the wake of extreme events like hurricanes.
AB - This paper focuses on exploring the capability of the recently developed Hurricane Resiliency Index (HRI) to predict future changes in sales tax revenues at the local level. Monthly data for Houston metropolitan statistical area (MSA) is used to forecast sales tax revenue in retail, utility, and construction industry sectors. With variants of the vector autoregressive (VAR) model, we compare the predictive power of using the HRI to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas's Metro Business Cycle Index. The VAR model augmented with the HRI generally provides better forecasts than the model with the Metro Business Cycle Index. The findings indicate that the HRI is a useful and reliable revenue-forecasting tool for local governments and policymakers in the wake of extreme events like hurricanes.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85055854301&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000314
DO - 10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000314
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85055854301
VL - 20
JO - Natural Hazards Review
JF - Natural Hazards Review
SN - 1527-6988
IS - 1
M1 - 04018025
ER -