Forecasting gasoline prices in the presence of Edgeworth Price Cycles

Michael D. Noel, Lanlan Chu

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

7 Scopus citations

Abstract

Forecasting is a central theme in economics. The ability to forecast prices enables economic agents to make optimal decisions for the present and future. In this article, we investigate if and how gasoline prices can be forecast in retail gasoline markets that are subject to high-frequency, asymmetric price cycles known as Edgeworth Price Cycles. We examine a series of purchase timing decision rules and a series of feasible forecasting algorithms for updating those rules over time. We find that, in the presence of cycles, agents in our five Australian markets can systematically reduce purchase prices below market average the equivalent of 11 to 15 U.S. cents per gallon, using simple decision rules and feasible forecasting algorithms.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)204-214
Number of pages11
JournalEnergy Economics
Volume51
DOIs
StatePublished - Sep 1 2015

Keywords

  • Australia
  • Edgeworth price cycles
  • Forecasting
  • Intertemporal substitution
  • Prediction
  • Retail gasoline prices

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