Exponential smoothing model for condition monitoring: A case study

Yawei Hu, Hongchao Zhang, Chao Li, Shujie Liu, Yuanliang Zhang

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

2 Scopus citations

Abstract

With the development of advanced technologies, the reliability evaluation of key components or equipments and preventive maintenance decision-making are becoming more and more important. Online reliability assessment and remaining life prediction using degradation data of real-time monitoring have been accounted as a hot trend in development. This article presents a means of conditional reliability evaluation by extracting characteristic parameters, which can represent the performance of the equipment in service. According to the time order, the physical performance measurements are regarded as time series. Exponential smoothing method is adopted to establish time series prediction model by computing exponential smoothing values. Performance parameters over a future time period are gained by the model constructed before. Experiments were carried out on a double row cylindrical roller bearing to get the vibration information and a mathematical model was built to forecast the future performance. The experiments proved the validity of the aforementioned method.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationQR2MSE 2013 - Proceedings of 2013 International Conference on Quality, Reliability, Risk, Maintenance, and Safety Engineering
Pages1742-1746
Number of pages5
DOIs
StatePublished - 2013
Event2013 International Conference on Quality, Reliability, Risk, Maintenance, and Safety Engineering, QR2MSE 2013 - Sichuan, China
Duration: Jul 15 2013Jul 18 2013

Publication series

NameQR2MSE 2013 - Proceedings of 2013 International Conference on Quality, Reliability, Risk, Maintenance, and Safety Engineering

Conference

Conference2013 International Conference on Quality, Reliability, Risk, Maintenance, and Safety Engineering, QR2MSE 2013
CountryChina
CitySichuan
Period07/15/1307/18/13

Keywords

  • double row cylindrical roller bearing
  • exponential smoothing
  • one-step and multi-step prediction
  • reliability prediction

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