Estimating projected precipitation for hydrologic design with a changing climate

Roger Kilgore, Chris Anderson, Jennifer M. Jacobs, Katharine Hayhoe, George R. Herrmann, Anne Stoner, Wilbert O. Thomas, David B. Thompson

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

Abstract

Increasingly, engineers must make estimates of discharge associated with a particular risk (or set of risks) to design a hydraulic structure or stormwater management facility considering potential climate change. As part of a national cooperative highway research program (NCHRP) study “Applying Climate Change Information to Hydrologic and Hydraulic Design of Transportation Infrastructure,” the authors examined issues and proposed strategies for adapting downscaled global climate model (GCM) precipitation outputs as inputs to rainfall/runoff models used in hydrologic design. This paper describes the recommendations for estimating projected precipitation based on the downscaled outputs of GCMs. It provides actionable guidance for estimating projected daily precipitation data for use in rainfall/runoff modeling for many applications. It describes a 10-step procedure that includes selection of a portfolio of downscaled GCM outputs using alternative greenhouse gas scenarios. The procedure describes a method for using GCM-based information in conjunction with historical precipitation for estimating projected precipitation. The procedure generates estimates of mean values and confidence limits for each scenario. Finally, the paper illustrates derivation of sub-daily precipitation estimates and discusses the limitations of—and alternatives to—these methodologies.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationWorld Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2019
Subtitle of host publicationGroundwater, Sustainability, Hydro-Climate/Climate Change, and Environmental Engineering - Selected Papers from the World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2019
EditorsGregory F. Scott, William Hamilton
PublisherAmerican Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE)
Pages205-214
Number of pages10
ISBN (Electronic)9780784482346
DOIs
StatePublished - 2019
Event19th World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2019: Groundwater, Sustainability, Hydro-Climate/Climate Change, and Environmental Engineering - Pittsburgh, United States
Duration: May 19 2019May 23 2019

Publication series

NameWorld Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2019: Groundwater, Sustainability, Hydro-Climate/Climate Change, and Environmental Engineering - Selected Papers from the World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2019

Conference

Conference19th World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2019: Groundwater, Sustainability, Hydro-Climate/Climate Change, and Environmental Engineering
CountryUnited States
CityPittsburgh
Period05/19/1905/23/19

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