TY - JOUR
T1 - Dynamic risk assessment: A validation study
T2 - A validation study
AU - Morgan, Robert
AU - Kroner, Daryl
AU - Mills, Jeremy
AU - Serna, Catherine
AU - McDonald, Brendan
N1 - Funding Information:
Author Note: This project (Re-Entry: Dynamic Risk Assessment) was supported by Award No. 2007-IJ-CX-0027 awarded by the National Institute of Justice, Office of Justice Programs, U.S. Department of Justice . The opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this publication/program/exhibition are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Department of Justice.
Funding Information:
The research contained in this document was coordinated in part by the Texas Department of Criminal Justice (Research Agreement #547-RL07). The contents of this report reflect the views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the Texas Department of Criminal Justice.
PY - 2013/3
Y1 - 2013/3
N2 - Purpose: The purpose of the study was to expand the dynamic content areas of psycho-social functioning employed with correctional offenders when predicting post-release outcome. In this study we utilized a similar methodology from a forensic mental health study that successfully measured dynamic change as it related to release incidents (Quinsey, Jones, Book, & Barr, 2006). Method: This manuscript outlines the methodology and preliminary results of the predictive power of dynamic variables over static variables in the prediction of risk. Participants consisted of 133 male offenders paroled from Texas Department of Criminal Justice (TDCJ) correctional facilities from June 11, 2008 - January 31, 2011. This study utilized a 7-wave data collection procedure (upon community re-entry and monthly follow-up for a minimum of 6. months) with measures designed to measure criminal risk or that have proven related to criminal outcomes. Results: Results indicated adequate internal consistency reliability, temporal stability, and inter-rater reliability; however, convergent validity for the selected rated measures were unstable. Consequently, the inclusion of dynamic risk factors did not contribute to the predictive power of static variables. Conclusion: Changes in offenders dynamic functioning was not associated with changes in community outcomes. Implications of these results are discussed.
AB - Purpose: The purpose of the study was to expand the dynamic content areas of psycho-social functioning employed with correctional offenders when predicting post-release outcome. In this study we utilized a similar methodology from a forensic mental health study that successfully measured dynamic change as it related to release incidents (Quinsey, Jones, Book, & Barr, 2006). Method: This manuscript outlines the methodology and preliminary results of the predictive power of dynamic variables over static variables in the prediction of risk. Participants consisted of 133 male offenders paroled from Texas Department of Criminal Justice (TDCJ) correctional facilities from June 11, 2008 - January 31, 2011. This study utilized a 7-wave data collection procedure (upon community re-entry and monthly follow-up for a minimum of 6. months) with measures designed to measure criminal risk or that have proven related to criminal outcomes. Results: Results indicated adequate internal consistency reliability, temporal stability, and inter-rater reliability; however, convergent validity for the selected rated measures were unstable. Consequently, the inclusion of dynamic risk factors did not contribute to the predictive power of static variables. Conclusion: Changes in offenders dynamic functioning was not associated with changes in community outcomes. Implications of these results are discussed.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84874299554&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2012.11.004
DO - 10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2012.11.004
M3 - Article
VL - 41
SP - 115
EP - 124
JO - Journal of Criminal Justice
JF - Journal of Criminal Justice
IS - 2
ER -