Applying econometric techniques to time series data for the four different commodity prices (oil, gold, silver and copper) and two financial variables (interest rates and exchange rates), this original paper by Ramazan Sari, Shawkat Hammoudeh and Bradley Ewing analyzes and compares the extent of the impacts of shocks in commodities among themselves and with those of the financial variables. The authors find evidence that holds in the short and long horizons on the transmission of price change shocks, between gold and silver while the highly cyclical copper appears to be nearly independent of movements in the prices of other commodities. As well, gold and silver, but not copper, are found to explain some of the forecast error variance of changes in oil futures prices. The link between the oil price and the prices of the precious metals could be due to the fact that oil price is valued in dollars and there is a flight-to-safety relationship between those precious metals, particularly gold, and the exchange rate. Their results also indicate that the exchange rate can explain movements in the variance of oil and the metal commodities. Furthermore, there is some relationship, though not large, between the interest rate and the exchange rate.
|Number of pages||12|
|Journal||Geopolitics of Energy|
|State||Published - Jul 2007|