TY - JOUR
T1 - Disputed territory, defensive alliances and conflict initiation
AU - Wright, Thorin M.
AU - Rider, Toby J.
PY - 2014/4
Y1 - 2014/4
N2 - In this study, we evaluate the effects of alliance behavior on the probability of militarized conflict initiation with specific emphasis placed on the issues at stake in the conflict. After much debate over the relationship between alliances and conflict, recent research suggests that specific types of alliances, namely defensive pacts for target states, decrease the likelihood that potential challengers will initiate militarized disputes. Revisiting the alliance-conflict relationship, we allow the type of issue at stake to vary in order to determine whether this deterrent effect holds even when the most salient of issues are under contention. Specifically, we introduce indicators for whether the two states are competing over territorial issues, a high-salience stake that is particularly conflict-prone. Using a number of different indicators for territorial competition and examining several different time periods, analyses suggest that targeted defensive alliances do indeed have a deterrent effect against named adversaries, even when the most salient of issues are at stake.
AB - In this study, we evaluate the effects of alliance behavior on the probability of militarized conflict initiation with specific emphasis placed on the issues at stake in the conflict. After much debate over the relationship between alliances and conflict, recent research suggests that specific types of alliances, namely defensive pacts for target states, decrease the likelihood that potential challengers will initiate militarized disputes. Revisiting the alliance-conflict relationship, we allow the type of issue at stake to vary in order to determine whether this deterrent effect holds even when the most salient of issues are under contention. Specifically, we introduce indicators for whether the two states are competing over territorial issues, a high-salience stake that is particularly conflict-prone. Using a number of different indicators for territorial competition and examining several different time periods, analyses suggest that targeted defensive alliances do indeed have a deterrent effect against named adversaries, even when the most salient of issues are at stake.
KW - Alliances
KW - deterrence
KW - militarized interstate disputes
KW - territory
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84898910289&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1177/0738894213503440
DO - 10.1177/0738894213503440
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:84898910289
SN - 0738-8942
VL - 31
SP - 119
EP - 144
JO - Conflict Management and Peace Science
JF - Conflict Management and Peace Science
IS - 2
ER -