TY - JOUR
T1 - Copula-Based Convection-Permitting Projections of Future Changes in Multivariate Drought Characteristics
AU - Zhang, B.
AU - Wang, S.
AU - Wang, Y.
N1 - Funding Information:
This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant 51809223) and the Hong Kong Polytechnic University Start-up Grant (grant 1-ZE8S). The daily hydrological data for Guadalupe, Blanco, Mission, and Frio river basins were collected from the U.S. MOPEX data set. The PRISM data set was provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA. The CFSR data set was developed by NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Coupled Modeling, which is responsible for CMIP5, and we thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making their model outputs available. We would also like to express our sincere gratitude to the Editor and anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments and suggestions.
Publisher Copyright:
©2019. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
PY - 2019
Y1 - 2019
N2 - Probabilistic projections of future drought characteristics play a crucial role in climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction. This study presents a copula-based probabilistic framework for projecting future changes in multivariable drought characteristics through convection-permitting Weather Research and Forecasting simulations with 4-km horizontal grid spacing. A probabilistic multivariate drought index is introduced to examine the joint effects of drought indicators with uncertainty intervals for four major river basins located in South Central Texas of the United States. Markov chain Monte Carlo is used to address uncertainties in assessing copula parameters and in predicting climate-induced changes in hydrological regimes. Our findings reveal that the severity and intensity of drought episodes can be amplified when considering the compound effects of soil moisture and runoff regimes by using the probabilistic multivariate drought index. The South Central Texas region is projected to experience more drought events with shorter duration and higher intensity in a changing climate. The drought severity will not necessarily increase due to the decreasing drought duration. In addition, our findings indicate that the intensity of future droughts is expected to increase as a result of the deficiency of soil moisture even though precipitation extremes are projected to become more frequent. Moreover, climate change impacts on multivariate drought characteristics will intensify with the increasing temporal scales (i.e., short-, medium-, and long-term droughts) although the number of future drought events may decrease by the end of this century.
AB - Probabilistic projections of future drought characteristics play a crucial role in climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction. This study presents a copula-based probabilistic framework for projecting future changes in multivariable drought characteristics through convection-permitting Weather Research and Forecasting simulations with 4-km horizontal grid spacing. A probabilistic multivariate drought index is introduced to examine the joint effects of drought indicators with uncertainty intervals for four major river basins located in South Central Texas of the United States. Markov chain Monte Carlo is used to address uncertainties in assessing copula parameters and in predicting climate-induced changes in hydrological regimes. Our findings reveal that the severity and intensity of drought episodes can be amplified when considering the compound effects of soil moisture and runoff regimes by using the probabilistic multivariate drought index. The South Central Texas region is projected to experience more drought events with shorter duration and higher intensity in a changing climate. The drought severity will not necessarily increase due to the decreasing drought duration. In addition, our findings indicate that the intensity of future droughts is expected to increase as a result of the deficiency of soil moisture even though precipitation extremes are projected to become more frequent. Moreover, climate change impacts on multivariate drought characteristics will intensify with the increasing temporal scales (i.e., short-, medium-, and long-term droughts) although the number of future drought events may decrease by the end of this century.
KW - climate change projection
KW - convection permitting
KW - copula
KW - drought
KW - uncertainty
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85068606282&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1029/2019JD030686
DO - 10.1029/2019JD030686
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85068606282
VL - 124
SP - 7460
EP - 7483
JO - Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
JF - Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
SN - 2169-897X
IS - 14
ER -