Configuration of statistical postprocessing techniques for improved low-level wind speed forecasts in west Texas

Meghan J. Mitchell, Brian Ancell, Jared A. Lee, Nicholas H. Smith

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

The wind energy industry needs accurate forecasts of wind speeds at turbine hub height and in the rotor layer to accurately predict power output from a wind farm. Current numerical weather prediction (NWP) models struggle to accurately predict low-level winds, partially due to systematic errors within the models due to deficiencies in physics parameterization schemes. These types of errors are addressed in this study with two statistical postprocessing techniques—model output statistics (MOS) and the analog ensemble (AnEn)—to understand the value of each technique in improving rotor-layer wind forecasts. This study is unique in that it compares the techniques using a sonic detection and ranging (SODAR) wind speed dataset that spans the entire turbine rotor layer. This study uses reforecasts from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model and observations in west Texas over periods of up to two years to examine the skill added to forecasts when applying both MOS and the AnEn. Different aspects of the techniques are tested, including model horizontal and vertical resolution, number of predictors, and training set length. Both MOS and the AnEn are applied to several levels representing heights in the turbine rotor layer (40, 60, 80, 100, and 120 m). This study demonstrates the degree of improvement that different configurations of each technique provides to raw WRF forecasts, to help guide their use for low-level wind speed forecasts. It was found that both AnEn and MOS show significant improvement over the raw WRF forecasts, but the two methods do not differ significantly from each other.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)129-147
Number of pages19
JournalWeather and Forecasting
Volume35
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Feb 2020

Keywords

  • Forecasting techniques
  • Model evaluation/performance
  • Model output statistics
  • Numerical weather prediction/forecasting
  • Statistical techniques
  • Wind

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