TY - JOUR
T1 - Comparison of meteorologicaland agriculture-related drought indicators across Ethiopia
AU - Tsige, Dawit Teweldebirhan
AU - Uddameri, Venkatesh
AU - Forghanparast, Farhang
AU - Hernandez, Elma Annette
AU - Ekwaro-Osire, Stephen
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2019 by the authors.
PY - 2019/11/1
Y1 - 2019/11/1
N2 - Meteorological drought indicators are commonly used for agricultural drought contingency planning in Ethiopia. Agricultural droughts arise due to soil moisture deficits. While these deficits may be caused by meteorological droughts, the timing and duration of agricultural droughts need not coincide with the onset of meteorological droughts due to soil moisture buffering. Similarly, agricultural droughts can persist, even after the cessation of meteorological droughts, due to delayed hydrologic processes. Understanding the relationship between meteorological and agricultural droughts is therefore crucial. An evaluation framework was developed to compare meteorologicaland agriculture-related drought indicators using a suite of exploratory and confirmatory tools. Receiver operator characteristics (ROC) was used to understand the covariation of meteorological and agricultural droughts. Comparisons were carried out between SPI-2, SPEI-2, and Palmer Z-index to assess intraseasonal droughts, and between SPI-6, SPEI-6, and PDSI for full-season evaluations. SPI was seen to correlate well with selected agriculture-related drought indicators, but did not explain all the variability noted in them. The correlation between meteorological and agricultural droughts exhibited spatial variability which varied across indicators. SPI is better suited to predict non-agricultural drought states than agricultural drought states. Differences between agricultural and meteorological droughts must be accounted for in order to devise better drought-preparedness planning.
AB - Meteorological drought indicators are commonly used for agricultural drought contingency planning in Ethiopia. Agricultural droughts arise due to soil moisture deficits. While these deficits may be caused by meteorological droughts, the timing and duration of agricultural droughts need not coincide with the onset of meteorological droughts due to soil moisture buffering. Similarly, agricultural droughts can persist, even after the cessation of meteorological droughts, due to delayed hydrologic processes. Understanding the relationship between meteorological and agricultural droughts is therefore crucial. An evaluation framework was developed to compare meteorologicaland agriculture-related drought indicators using a suite of exploratory and confirmatory tools. Receiver operator characteristics (ROC) was used to understand the covariation of meteorological and agricultural droughts. Comparisons were carried out between SPI-2, SPEI-2, and Palmer Z-index to assess intraseasonal droughts, and between SPI-6, SPEI-6, and PDSI for full-season evaluations. SPI was seen to correlate well with selected agriculture-related drought indicators, but did not explain all the variability noted in them. The correlation between meteorological and agricultural droughts exhibited spatial variability which varied across indicators. SPI is better suited to predict non-agricultural drought states than agricultural drought states. Differences between agricultural and meteorological droughts must be accounted for in order to devise better drought-preparedness planning.
KW - Droughts
KW - Food security
KW - GIS
KW - PDSI
KW - Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC)
KW - SPEI
KW - SPI
KW - Z-index
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85075548960&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.3390/w11112218
DO - 10.3390/w11112218
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85075548960
SN - 2073-4441
VL - 11
JO - Water (Switzerland)
JF - Water (Switzerland)
IS - 11
M1 - 2218
ER -