Climate change, heat waves, and mortality projections for Chicago

Katharine Hayhoe, Scott Sheridan, S Greene, Larry Kalkstein

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


Over the coming century, climate change is projected to increase both mean and extreme temperatures as heat waves become more frequent, intense, and long-lived. The city of Chicago has already experienced a number of severe heat waves, with a 1995 event estimated to be responsible for nearly 800 deaths. Here, future projections under SRES higher (A1FI) and lower (B1) emission scenarios are used to estimate the frequency of 1995-like heat wave events in terms of both meteorological characteristics and impacts on heat-related mortality. Before end of century, 1995-like heat waves could occur every other year on average under lower emissions and as frequently as three times per year under higher. Annual average mortality rates are projected to equal those of 1995 under lower emissions and reach twice 1995 levels under higher. An “analog city” analysis, transposing the weather conditions from the European Heat Wave of 2003 (responsible for 70,000 deaths across Europe) to the city of Chica
Original languageEnglish
JournalJournal of Great Lakes Research
StatePublished - Dec 31 2010


Dive into the research topics of 'Climate change, heat waves, and mortality projections for Chicago'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this