Causality: Its characterization in system dynamics and KSIM models of socioeconomic systems

James R. Burns, William M. Marcy

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

12 Scopus citations

Abstract

Two methodologies-Kane's KSIM and Forrester's system dynamics-for modeling socioeconomic systems are compared and contrasted with regard to the manner in which each characterizes and classifies casuality in socioeconomic systems. The equivalence of the so-called casual diagram used in system dynamics to the cross-impact matrix used in KSIM is indicated. Each method identifies exactly two classes of casual links-the similarity between the classes distinguished in system dynamics with those employed in KSIM is suggested. Then the assumptions regarding the nature of causality that are implicit within the two methodologies are compared. In this context techniques for translating linear system-dynamics models to KSIM-like models (and vice versa) are provided. Examples are provided to illustrate the notions discussed in the article.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)387-398
Number of pages12
JournalTechnological Forecasting and Social Change
Volume14
Issue number4
DOIs
StatePublished - Sep 1979

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