Basis establishment for quantitative risk analysis (QRA)

Kurt McElwain, Jaime Cantu, Mario Beruvides

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

Abstract

The potential for catastrophic accidents is simply inherent in certain industries. Organizations that are considered Highly Reliable Organizations (HROs) have operations that have the inherent potential for a catastrophic accident, but they operate for a long period of time without being subject to a catastrophic accident. The original analysis into this field was done in 1990 by Karlene Roberts who studied flight deck operations on Navy aircraft carriers. Her analysis defined standard traits that HROs possess. The next step is analyzing such operations is to perform quantitative analysis in order to have a better sense of the control an organization has over its inherently risky operations. Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA) has been in existence since the 1970s. QRA is the analysis of hazards to understand what level of risk is being assumed by the operation of the analyzed process. The application of analysis is beneficial for the person or entity that accepts the risk of and the responsibility for the operation. The emphasis on tracking near misses as the patterned behavior that is usually present prior to catastrophic events has been identified as a central management approach to achieve HRO safety levels. This paper expands this area of research to include the strength of Systems Dynamic Modeling and the establishment of specific risk limits to measure the quantitative analysis against to further enhance the strengths of HRO safety theory.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationASEM 41st International Annual Conference Proceedings "Leading Organizations through Uncertain Times"
EditorsH. Keathley, J. Enos, M. Parrish
PublisherAmerican Society for Engineering Management
ISBN (Electronic)9780997519594
StatePublished - 2020
Event41st International Annual Conference of the American Society for Engineering Management: Leading Organizations through Uncertain Times - Virtual, Online
Duration: Oct 28 2020Oct 30 2020

Publication series

NameASEM 41st International Annual Conference Proceedings "Leading Organizations through Uncertain Times"

Conference

Conference41st International Annual Conference of the American Society for Engineering Management: Leading Organizations through Uncertain Times
CityVirtual, Online
Period10/28/2010/30/20

Keywords

  • HRO
  • QRA
  • System dynamic analysis

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