Assessing Pandemic Uncertainty on Conditions of Vaccination and Self-isolation

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Abstract: A share of predictable information about the forthcoming state of a three-sided coin (susceptible—infected—immune) with the regular and random transition times between states is used for assessing the degree of pandemic uncertainty in our model. Unreliable and unsafe vaccines (that do not guarantee absolute immunity) as well as long self-isolation making transition times random increase the degree of pandemic uncertainty, worsening the damaging impact for both society and the economy.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)3550-3560
Number of pages11
JournalLobachevskii Journal of Mathematics
Issue number14
StatePublished - Dec 2021


  • COVID-19
  • pandemic uncertainty
  • self-isolation
  • vaccination


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