Analysis of critical characteristics for modeling the economics of blast fragment dispersion of hazardous materials

The significance of a thorough understanding and analysis of hazards and threats in an industrial operation cannot be overstated, but equally important is the development of potential accident scenarios and the calculation of the probable costs of failure of all safety barriers and controls. Operations having a high consequence of failure at any step should be managed as a High Reliability Organization (HRO). The USDOE Pantex Plant, as the nation's only nuclear weapon assembly point, is designed, managed and operated to be a HRO. Published characteristics of an HRO state that the organization performing highly hazardous operations must embrace two critical requirements; 1) stochastic analysis of hazards and threats, and 2) accident scenario development with economic consequence calculations. It is difficult and costly to perform the second requirement in order to accurately forecast cost impacts of a catastrophic accident. Due to the cost of this requirement, organizations are not always able to commit the resources necessary to do the work. This paper presents a preliminary analysis under development of the critical characteristics involved in modeling the economics of cleanup of blast fragmented dispersion of hazardous materials. The methodology, which utilizes and combines several tools, is presented as a model for cost estimation of barriers, controls, accidents and consequences. The model is able to determine accurately the consequences and associated costs of a catastrophic accident for justifying the costs of barriers and controls.