Advanced wind turbine performance and cost projections: A configuration survey

This paper examines the projected performance and cost for the next generation of utility scale wind turbines using a survey of experienced designers and evaluators of wind turbine technology. Cost of energy projections and a risk analysis for selected horizontal axis wind turbine configurations were used as a basis of comparison to project the near term potential of advanced wind turbine concepts. Results of this study indicate that two and three bladed horizontal axis designs, with various technical improvements, and in a size range from 0.5 to 1 MW will dominate the next generation of wind turbines. Also, two bladed designs are indicated to have more associated risk, but a potential of approximately a 30 percent decrease in the cost of energy. The table and figure on the next page show the survey results. There were forty-one (41) surveys sent out to U.S. and European wind design professionals with a 61% response. The table shows the five configurations identified by the survey and the design element categories. The figure shows the Cost of Energy (COE) relative figure of merit for each configuration based on data from a European Commission Report, `Study on the Next Generation of Large Wind Turbines', (Hau, 1991). The risk data are compiled from the survey respondents relative risk determination for their respective design. A complete copy of this paper will be published in the American Wind Energy Association, WindPower '92 Conference proceedings.