TY - JOUR
T1 - Accounting for spatial autocorrelation in the 2004 presidential popular vote
T2 - A reassessment of the evidence
AU - Burnett, J. Wesley
AU - Lacombe, Donald J.
PY - 2012
Y1 - 2012
N2 - Ordinary least squares econometric approaches to estimating election vote outcomes potentially ignore spatial dependence (or autocorrelation) in the data that may affect estimates of voting behavior. The presence of spatial autocorrelation in the data can yield biased or inconsistent point estimates when ordinary least squares is used inappropriately. Therefore, this paper puts forward a spatial econometric model to estimate the vote outcomes in the 2004 presidential election. We contribute to the literature in two ways. One, we extend the voting behavior literature by considering newly developed spatial specification tests to determine the proper econometric model. The results of two different spatial specification tests suggest that a spatial Durbin model provides a better fit to the data. Two, we offer a richer interpretation of the spatial effects, which differ from standard ordinary least squares estimates, of the county-level vote outcome for the 2004 presidential election.
AB - Ordinary least squares econometric approaches to estimating election vote outcomes potentially ignore spatial dependence (or autocorrelation) in the data that may affect estimates of voting behavior. The presence of spatial autocorrelation in the data can yield biased or inconsistent point estimates when ordinary least squares is used inappropriately. Therefore, this paper puts forward a spatial econometric model to estimate the vote outcomes in the 2004 presidential election. We contribute to the literature in two ways. One, we extend the voting behavior literature by considering newly developed spatial specification tests to determine the proper econometric model. The results of two different spatial specification tests suggest that a spatial Durbin model provides a better fit to the data. Two, we offer a richer interpretation of the spatial effects, which differ from standard ordinary least squares estimates, of the county-level vote outcome for the 2004 presidential election.
KW - 2004 presidential election
KW - Spatial Hausman test
KW - Spatial econometrics
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84874333245&partnerID=8YFLogxK
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:84874333245
SN - 0048-749X
VL - 42
SP - 75
EP - 89
JO - Review of Regional Studies
JF - Review of Regional Studies
IS - 1
ER -