TY - JOUR
T1 - A stochastic simulation analysis of the effects of Indian wheat production instability on the world wheat market
AU - Devadoss, Stephen
AU - Li, Shuangling
AU - Jones, James
N1 - Copyright:
Copyright 2020 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.
PY - 1997/8
Y1 - 1997/8
N2 - Adverse weather factors in India augment the instability in wheat supply and trade. Consequently, India's wheat trade is a classic example of stochastic supply being the dominant factor in determining trade flows. This study analyzes the effects of random fluctuations in India's wheat supply on domestic and world price variability and trade flows of India and major exporters and importers by using stochastic simulation analysis. Trade mitigates price variability and, thus, acts as a buffer stock program in reducing price variability. The results show that production shortfalls (surpluses) in India benefit wheat exporters (importers) and hurt importers (exporters).
AB - Adverse weather factors in India augment the instability in wheat supply and trade. Consequently, India's wheat trade is a classic example of stochastic supply being the dominant factor in determining trade flows. This study analyzes the effects of random fluctuations in India's wheat supply on domestic and world price variability and trade flows of India and major exporters and importers by using stochastic simulation analysis. Trade mitigates price variability and, thus, acts as a buffer stock program in reducing price variability. The results show that production shortfalls (surpluses) in India benefit wheat exporters (importers) and hurt importers (exporters).
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=0031206261&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/s0161-8938(96)00059-2
DO - 10.1016/s0161-8938(96)00059-2
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:0031206261
VL - 19
SP - 375
EP - 379
JO - Journal of Policy Modeling
JF - Journal of Policy Modeling
SN - 0161-8938
IS - 4
ER -