A stage-structured, Aedes albopictus population model

Richard A. Erickson, Steven M. Presley, Linda J.S. Allen, Kevin R. Long, Stephen B. Cox

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

42 Scopus citations

Abstract

Aedes albopictus has been the fastest spreading invasive animal species in the world from the mid-1980s until the mid-2000s. In areas it infests, it disrupts native mosquito ecology and can potentially vector up to 21 viruses. To better understand the population dynamics of this species, we created a temperature dependent population model. A stage-structured model was chosen to allow each life-stage to have different temperature dependent mortality and development rates, and each stage was modeled with an ordinary differential equation. Model parameters and distributions were based upon literature values. Initially, a basic model was constructed. This model then had parameters that were forced based upon daily average temperatures. Several criteria were used to evaluate the model, including a comparison to field data from Lubbock, TX. In a stochastic version of the model, a 95% confidence limit contained 70.7% of the field data points. Based upon these results, we feel reasonably confident that we have captured the role of temperature in driving the population dynamics of Ae. albopictus.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1273-1282
Number of pages10
JournalEcological Modelling
Volume221
Issue number9
DOIs
StatePublished - May 10 2010

Keywords

  • Disease vector
  • Invasive species
  • Medical entomology
  • Mosquito ecology

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