Abstract
Aedes albopictus has been the fastest spreading invasive animal species in the world from the mid-1980s until the mid-2000s. In areas it infests, it disrupts native mosquito ecology and can potentially vector up to 21 viruses. To better understand the population dynamics of this species, we created a temperature dependent population model. A stage-structured model was chosen to allow each life-stage to have different temperature dependent mortality and development rates, and each stage was modeled with an ordinary differential equation. Model parameters and distributions were based upon literature values. Initially, a basic model was constructed. This model then had parameters that were forced based upon daily average temperatures. Several criteria were used to evaluate the model, including a comparison to field data from Lubbock, TX. In a stochastic version of the model, a 95% confidence limit contained 70.7% of the field data points. Based upon these results, we feel reasonably confident that we have captured the role of temperature in driving the population dynamics of Ae. albopictus.
Original language | English |
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Pages (from-to) | 1273-1282 |
Number of pages | 10 |
Journal | Ecological Modelling |
Volume | 221 |
Issue number | 9 |
DOIs | |
State | Published - May 10 2010 |
Keywords
- Disease vector
- Invasive species
- Medical entomology
- Mosquito ecology