A life cycle costs analysis of the impacts of future climate change on flexible pavement performance

Y. Guo, M. Chen, G. Ni, L. Wang, Y. Qiao, A. M.K. Stoner, J. Santos

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

Abstract

Climate change is an undeniable reality that endangers the integrity of the human and built environment. One component of the built environment that may be particularly threatened by the negative effects of climate change is transportation infrastructure, and particularly road pavement networks. Climate change is expected to impact not only the physical infrastructure but also its owners and managers as well as the long-term operators and users. This study presents the results of a comprehensive life-cycle cost analysis (LCCA) aimed at quantifying the potential economic impacts for road authorities and users, resulting from considering future climate projections in the design of thick flexible pavements, typical for highways and interstates, located in each one of the four climate zones defined in the United States-based Long-Term Pavement Performance (LTPP) program. For that purpose, it adopts a novel approach that uses hourly high-resolution spatial and temporal projections downscaled from a global climate model for the higher RCP8.5 scenario at the scale of individual weather stations for three different current or future climates, (2001–2020, 2041–2060, and 2081–2100) and a baseline period of 1981–2000, as input to the AASHTOWare Pavement ME DesignTM model. Finally, the potential life-cycle economic impact on highway agency and road user costs in four U.S. climate zones are quantified.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationLife-Cycle Civil Engineering
Subtitle of host publicationInnovation, Theory and Practice - Proceedings of the 7th International Symposium on Life-Cycle Civil Engineering, IALCCE 2020
EditorsAirong Chen, Xin Ruan, Dan M. Frangopol
PublisherCRC Press/Balkema
Pages1452-1458
Number of pages7
ISBN (Electronic)9780367360191
DOIs
StatePublished - 2020
Event7th International Symposium on Life-Cycle Civil Engineering, IALCCE 2020 - Shanghai, China
Duration: Oct 27 2020Oct 30 2020

Publication series

NameLife-Cycle Civil Engineering: Innovation, Theory and Practice - Proceedings of the 7th International Symposium on Life-Cycle Civil Engineering, IALCCE 2020

Conference

Conference7th International Symposium on Life-Cycle Civil Engineering, IALCCE 2020
Country/TerritoryChina
CityShanghai
Period10/27/2010/30/20

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