TY - JOUR
T1 - A habitat-based model for the spread of hantavirus between reservoir and spillover species
AU - Allen, Linda J.S.
AU - Wesley, Curtis L.
AU - Owen, Robert D.
AU - Goodin, Douglas G.
AU - Koch, David
AU - Jonsson, Colleen B.
AU - Chu, Yong Kyu
AU - Shawn Hutchinson, J. M.
AU - Paige, Robert L.
N1 - Funding Information:
This research was supported by a Grant from the Fogarty International Center #R01TW006986-02 under the NIH NSF Ecology of Infectious Diseases initiative. We thank R.K. McCormack for preliminary discussions on this work, the Fundación Moises Bertoni for facilitating access to the field sites, and the Vendramini family for allowing us to work in Estancia Rama III. The Secretaría de Ambiente provided necessary permits for working with wildlife. In addition, we thank the referees for their helpful suggestions.
PY - 2009/10/21
Y1 - 2009/10/21
N2 - New habitat-based models for spread of hantavirus are developed which account for interspecies interaction. Existing habitat-based models do not consider interspecies pathogen transmission, a primary route for emergence of new infectious diseases and reservoirs in wildlife and man. The modeling of interspecies transmission has the potential to provide more accurate predictions of disease persistence and emergence dynamics. The new models are motivated by our recent work on hantavirus in rodent communities in Paraguay. Our Paraguayan data illustrate the spatial and temporal overlaps among rodent species, one of which is the reservoir species for Jabora virus and others which are spillover species. Disease transmission occurs when their habitats overlap. Two mathematical models, a system of ordinary differential equations (ODE) and a continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) model, are developed for spread of hantavirus between a reservoir and a spillover species. Analysis of a special case of the ODE model provides an explicit expression for the basic reproduction number, R0, such that if R0 < 1, then the pathogen does not persist in either population but if R0 > 1, pathogen outbreaks or persistence may occur. Numerical simulations of the CTMC model display sporadic disease incidence, a new behavior of our habitat-based model, not present in other models, but which is a prominent feature of the seroprevalence data from Paraguay. Environmental changes that result in greater habitat overlap result in more encounters among various species that may lead to pathogen outbreaks and pathogen establishment in a new host.
AB - New habitat-based models for spread of hantavirus are developed which account for interspecies interaction. Existing habitat-based models do not consider interspecies pathogen transmission, a primary route for emergence of new infectious diseases and reservoirs in wildlife and man. The modeling of interspecies transmission has the potential to provide more accurate predictions of disease persistence and emergence dynamics. The new models are motivated by our recent work on hantavirus in rodent communities in Paraguay. Our Paraguayan data illustrate the spatial and temporal overlaps among rodent species, one of which is the reservoir species for Jabora virus and others which are spillover species. Disease transmission occurs when their habitats overlap. Two mathematical models, a system of ordinary differential equations (ODE) and a continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) model, are developed for spread of hantavirus between a reservoir and a spillover species. Analysis of a special case of the ODE model provides an explicit expression for the basic reproduction number, R0, such that if R0 < 1, then the pathogen does not persist in either population but if R0 > 1, pathogen outbreaks or persistence may occur. Numerical simulations of the CTMC model display sporadic disease incidence, a new behavior of our habitat-based model, not present in other models, but which is a prominent feature of the seroprevalence data from Paraguay. Environmental changes that result in greater habitat overlap result in more encounters among various species that may lead to pathogen outbreaks and pathogen establishment in a new host.
KW - Basic reproduction number
KW - Hantavirus
KW - Interspecies pathogen transmission
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=70249083340&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.jtbi.2009.07.009
DO - 10.1016/j.jtbi.2009.07.009
M3 - Article
C2 - 19616014
AN - SCOPUS:70249083340
VL - 260
SP - 510
EP - 522
JO - Journal of Theoretical Biology
JF - Journal of Theoretical Biology
SN - 0022-5193
IS - 4
ER -